The key factor in this race so far: authenticity.
On Super Tuesday, voters once again rewarded those candidates who seemed most comfortable playing themselves, and harshly punished the one who came across as a plastic phony.
Mike Huckabee’s improbable success continued and swelled, with millions in his home region recognizing him as a real-deal country boy and unassuming good guy, whatever talk radio screamers may say against him. McCain, the big winner who locked down nine states (including the biggest prizes – California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Missouri) may seem edgy and irritating but he does convey the sense of a tightly-coiled, hyper-caffeinated straight-talker. You may not like him (many movement conservatives loathe him, in fact) but his apparent refusal to pose or pretend pays big dividends with the voters. McCain will irreducibly and unapologetically remain McCain – to the frustration of his critics and the delight of his fans (who, according to opinion polls, give him a freakishly high positive-negative rating of five-to-one).
On the Democratic side, Barack Obama’s other-worldly cool seems almost supernaturally natural: he could even bust a move with Ellen DeGeneres without looking in the least bit uncomfortable. Hillary, of course, has drawn derision for her robotic, stilted presentations, but before both of her big tests (New Hampshire and yesterday) she summoned tears and projected vulnerability that made her seem eerily life-like. In the middle of the campaign, she’s finally achieved something Al Gore has never managed: making her mechanical, geeky, clearly-pre-programmed public appearances seem almost endearing in their clumsiness. Her strong performance on Super Tuesday suggests that the public now recognizes that the guarded, cautious, weirdly tormented, but formidable lady is, after all, the authentic Hill. It’s obviously a struggle to live her life – with the complicated marriage, and the awful scrutiny about grooming and weight, and the seemingly hopeless competition with an unflappable, easy-going, effortlessly articulate, and impossibly slender hunk. Sure, it’s a struggle, but like other underdogs she’s been able to hook the spectators on her soap opera.
The big loser, of course, was Mitt Romney, the one-time “dream candidate” who looks just like a President from central casting, with his simultaneously aristocratic and affable bearing. The problem for Mitt always involved the perception of phoniness – even without the famous history of issues switcheroos, there would have been that air of breathlessly eager pandering, the desperation to please at all costs. Yes, conservatives wanted a candidate who met all the requirements on our check lists, but we didn’t need a contender who so obviously and eagerly assembled his campaign (and his brand new presidential persona) according to every little detail on those lists. Somewhere inside all the meaningless and carefully calculated proclamations (how many more times must we hear that “Washington is Broken”?) lurks the real Mitt, the irreducible essence of the man – the core that could have connected had the consultants and image-makers given it a chance.
If Romney had run as himself—a can-do problem solver who could work with anybody in a post-partisan Washington – he might have won this battle long ago. Instead, he decided to assume the synthetic persona of a right wing ideologue, an enforcer of orthodoxy. This made no sense in a public figure still perceived as a genial moderate as recently as two years ago – which made Mike Huckabee’s line all the more devastating: “Mitt is the only person I’ve ever heard about who went through political puberty at the age of sixty.”
Authenticity represents the ultimate advantage in this election cycle and in the fall we may see a battle royal of four (count ‘em- four!) politicos with demonstrated expertise in projecting that crucial quality. The results of Super Tuesday make a plausible case for an unusually exciting pair of tickets: Clinton-Obama vs. McCain-Huckabee. Sure thing? Hardly, but a distinct possibility and a strong pairing for both parties.
May the most authentic team win.