Many Republicans believed that the immigration issue would play a powerful role in helping them maintain their majorities – especially after the Congress finally validated the “enforcement first” approach and authorized the building of a 700 mile wall. Many candidates (including the admirable Rick Santorum) made a point of pushing hard on the immigration issue, accusing their Democratic opponents of favoring “amnesty” (because they supported an approach similar to that of the President, Senator McCain and half the Senate Republicans).
Regardless of the merits of the arguments on this issue, as a political strategy it flopped completely. Two of the most outspoken hardliners on the issue of illegals, Congressman J.D. Hayworth and one-issue radical Randy Graf, both got slaughtered by overwhelming margins in formerly Republican districts in Arizona—the state worst afflicted by the flood of unauthorized entrants. Arizona’s Democratic governor, who did demand more federal help for border security, drew denunciations from anti-immigration forces as a “squish” on the issue but won re-election with 63% of the vote. Arizona did pass several initiatives by overwhelming margins to take commonsense steps to deal with the flood of new arrivals-- establishing English as the official language, banning law suits by illegals, denying state aid for illegals in higher education, and so forth – but these were rational, practical steps that all conservatives (and many moderates and liberals) could easily support.
On the other side of the issue, no prominent supporter of comprehensive immigration reform or earned legalization suffered the predicted dire consequences at the polls. The notion that immigration constituted a hot button concern that would mobilize millions for hard line Republicans, and punish their opponents at the poll, produced not a single example in all the House and Senate and governorship races. The most visible pro-immigrant Republican in the country, Arnold Schwarzenegger, also proved to be the most visible GOP success on Tuesday night.
Meanwhile, the exit polling showed the devastating impact of the Republican association with immigrant-bashing. Of all the major groups in the population (with more than thirty identified by pollsters), none shifted as significantly, as disastrously from GOP support in 2004 to Democratic support in 2006 than Hispanics. Republicans lost 8% of their overall white-Anglo support, and maintained the same meager level of Afro-American support, but gave up a staggering 30% of the Hispanic support they labored so hard to win in 2004. Lop-sided Latino margins for Democrats proved decisive in numerous House and Senate races. Hispanics will comprise rapidly increasing segments of the American electorate. Any party that risks driving these people away en masse—alienating 30% of its prior supporters in just two years! – runs a very real risk of extinction.
The exit polling on issues further confirmed the sad impact of the immigration issue. When asked to name the issues that concerned them most, respondents chose corruption, the economy, Iraq, terror and other biggies, with illegal immigration finishing last among the major options. Only 30% identified it as a significant issue AND, even among those who viewed immigration as a top concern, the votes split almost down the middle: 52% for Republicans, 46% for Democrats. If half the people who felt worried over illegal immigration chose the party of Nancy Pelosi and Ted Kennedy, then the current Republican tough guy posture clearly isn’t working.
In talk radio, hosts and listeners talk endlessly about the need to curb the “invasion” from the south but the argument that this issue represented some magic bullet to save endangered conservatives disappeared along with the GOP majorities.