It’s undeniably foolhardy, even downright foolish, to try to predict the outcome of an electoral exercise as notably quirky and unpredictable as the Iowa Caucuses—especially undertaking this effort after midnight, less than eighteen hours before decision time. Nevertheless, everything about this year’s contest seems so compelling – with a fascinating cast of characters, breathlessly dramatic timing, startling twists and turns and deeply significant underlying issues –that I can’t resist a few anticipatory observations.
The polling remains desperately close – the average of the four most recent surveys (all of them concluding on December 30th or later) shows Huckabee with 29.0% and Romney with 28.3%, an altogether insignificant difference. Many savvy observers look at this absurdly close polling (mirrored by a similar dead heat on the Democratic side) and conclude that the caucuses themselves will end in a virtual tie.
Polling, however, reflects preferences, not passion. I suspect there is a passion gap between the Romniacs and the Huckaboomers. The Huckabee forces, far less organized and well-funded than their adversaries, nonetheless feel a zealous fervor for their guy that the Mitt-men can’t match. Callers to my show, or Republicans who approach me at public events, express real affection and energy and excitement over Mike Huckabee because he’s demonstrably different from the all the other leading candidates in both parties with their Ivy League pedigrees and blow-dried presentations and familiar, standardized conservative tropes. This doesn’t mean they’re bad guys in any way: as I’ve said repeatedly on the air, Romney, Rudy, Fred and McCain would all make excellent presidents.
It’s just that Huckabee appeals to a different constituency than the others, as the polling clearly indicates. Mitt kills Huck among voters earning more than $75,000 a year. Huck easily out polls Mitt among those who earn less than $50,000. There is an undeniably populist wing to the Republican Party, much (but not all) of which intersects with its Christian conservative wing. These often dismissed and derided voters brought unexpectedly strong Iowa showings to candidates who connected with them—allowing televangelist Pat Robertson to best sitting VP George H.W. Bush in 1988 (25% to 19%, while Bob Dole won with 37%); enabling Pat Buchanan to come within a whisker (26% to 23%) of besting Bob Dole in 1996, while Allen Keyes (a startling 14%) and Steve (“The Establishment Has Met Its Match in Me”) Forbes (a strong 31%) combined to out-poll anointed heir apparent George W. Bush (41%) in 2000.
With this background in mind, which candidate is more likely to outperform his poll numbers tomorrow --- Romney, with his lavishly-funded, smoothly running, campaign machine and saturation TV ads (many of them negative), or Huckabee, with his loosey-goosey, mostly informal network of housewives and home-schoolers and neighborhood activists?
The outcome could be as close as the polls indicate, and certainly Romney’s professionalism and discipline could prevail over Huckabee’s fumbling, aw-shucks, neighborly appeal. Nevertheless, given the history of the Iowa Caucuses I suspect it’s more likely that the former Arkansas governor will surprise the world with the strength of his showing.
On the Republican side, Iowa caucus goers have shown a powerful partiality to the anti-establishment candidate. Given all the increasingly nasty attacks against Huckabee from every imaginable direction, there’s no doubt who’s the establishment candidate. In this sense, the angry, unfair, often snide assaults on Huckabee from nearly all my colleagues in Talk Radio (led by the bitterly and inexplicably hostile Rush Limbaugh) may only serve to burnish his anti-establishment credentials. In any event, Huck has scant money to parry these attacks with defenses or counter-assaults of his own, so the David and Goliath paradigm (an image that the one-time pastor would embrace) may only intensify the zeal of his fans and followers.
After the pummeling of the last week, even Huckabee’s most implacable critics ought to admit that you sort of feel sorry for the guy. Okay, pity isn’t exactly a formula for long term victory, but it might be a factor in a backlash in Iowa.
My best guess: the Huck wins the battle by more than one or two points… possibly even a lot more.
Of course, I could be totally wrong, and Romney’s smooth-running operation easily could prevail, giving him the aura of an unstoppable frontrunner. If so, Huckabee’s star will quickly fade as a serious contender, but he’ll still deserve more fair and respectful treatment (from his colleagues on the campaign and my colleagues on the radio) than he’s received in recent days.
Meanwhile, there’s a battle royal for third place between McCain and Thompson. Neither of these guys gets hurt too seriously if he finishes fourth, but the one who prevails in this second tier struggle (especially if it’s McCain, who’s run no advertising and campaigned hardly at all in Iowa) will get a huge boost for his campaign.
In any event, within hours we'll all be readily to conclude the opening act of a riveting and profoundly important political drama. Let's hope that it plays out as neither tragedy nor farce.